I’ve been catching a bunch of clips from Jack Raines new book, Young Money, where he shares his philosophy for a life well-lived in your twenties. For anyone looking back on their twenties, or their life in general, there’s a clear theme: your life trajectory is heavily informed by your social status, wealth, and the timing of your biggest decisions.
Specifically, when you have kids. And whether you’re walking into it with a Trad Wife, as a dual-income power couple, or Daddy Day Care holding down the fort.
Full disclosure, I loved my twenties. Had Jack’s books existed then, it would have added some nice perspective that I’m sure would have been useful. Not because I messed up, but because opportunity costs aren’t obvious, especially at that age.
The “Later” Problem
Here’s an inflection point I’ve seen play out repeatedly: “I’m going to optimize really hard, really early, for the life I want.” What I typically find this translates to is: I’m going to hustle my ass off now so I can chill later.”
The catch? So many people have a different perception of what later means. And when that time horizon stretches further than anticipated, disillusionment sets in. And as a mid-thirties, married dude with two kids, I can tell you: my life would look very different if I were still single with no kids. Would I have more money? I would think so. Would I be wealthier? Maybe on paper.
I recently saw one of Shaan Puri’s controversial takes on X that resonates:
“Many of the most influential people in podcasting are dudes who are single and childless. That’s probably going to have weird consequences.”
The Millionaire Math Nobody Mentions
Here are some statistics:
Thomas J. Stanley’s research from The Millionaire Next Door found that:
92% of millionaires are married
Only ~2% are divorced
The average millionaire couple has been married 28 years
They raise an average of 3 children
Median age: 57
The average millionaire didn’t go all in on solo optimization, and they typically had kids that complicated their spreadsheets.
Now what’s interesting is this data is a little stale considering when the book was written. Newer surveys from 2024 are showing a shifting landscape:
Roughly two-thirds of millionaires are married (down from 92%)
About a quarter are divorced (vs. 2%)
Just over half actually have children
Either the data is capturing a different slice of wealth (tech bros vs. small business builders), or the old model is cracking. Either way, there’s a pattern: wealth accumulation and family formation are not orthogonal variables. They’re inversely correlated, at least in the short term.
The Trade Off You Can’t Escape
I saw a comment the other day on a Substack post responding to a young guy documenting his investment journey, starting with $120k in a concentrated stock portfolio. The reply:
“I’m 10 years your senior and would be starting today with a fraction of what you’re starting with. I wish I would have started earlier…”
Fair. But here’s what the commenter doesn’t know: Was his tradeoff worth it?
We’re consumed by comparison from influencers, curated feeds, and highlight reels that we forget there is always an opportunity cost. That gets lost when you’re wallowing in self pity about how your life doesn’t look like some curated magic on your feed.
How to Actually Optimize For the Life You Want
When you’re optimizing for one thing on your long list of wants, it typically carries an opportunity cost of something else on your list.
Want to be a millionaire by 35? Totally doable on a certain trajectory. Add marriage, a house with a big yard, three kids, and that timeline starts wobbling. A family can be a capital intensive project, yet according to wealth stats, it’s the way to go.
Think about the divorce economics: post-divorce, women see income declines of 46-50%, men 23-28%. First marriages end in divorce ~40% of the time. And yet, 66% of adults remarry. People bet on love. The single, optimized, hyper-mobile life isn’t as shiny in retrospect as it is in theory.
My Take
I’m not suggesting going all in on the Trad Wife movement, or selling you on the FIRE movement. I’m saying this:
If you’re optimizing for maximum wealth accumulation, you’ll likely sacrifice family flexibility.
If you’re optimizing for family, you’ll likely accept slower wealth growth.
If you try to optimize for both simultaneously, you need extraordinary discipline, luck, or both.
Most people think they’ll figure it out later, but later takes longer than expected.
Bottom line: There’s no perfect trajectory. There’s only the one you choose, and the trade-offs you’re willing to live with.
Choose Wisely!
-Pablo
Could the issue with the MND numbers be that we’re slipping into an extremistan scenario? Young people in tech are able to hit two commas very quickly these days and are highly incentivised to avoid marriage until their career levels off or spits them out.
The Millionaire Next Door was published 30 years ago, so it's possible that the total number of married with kids millionaires has increased/stayed the same in numbers but gone down in percentage.
Younger kids are waiting to marry, buy a house and have kids. They appear to be saving more, so more are becoming millionaires while single?
Let's come back in 10 years and see what happened.